The U.S. midterm election results triggered sharp divergence in commodity markets. According to projections from multiple major U.S. media outlets, Democrats won a landslide victory in the midterm elections held on November 3. As a result, gold and silver futures surged on November 4, while international oil prices suffered a heavy selloff. Entering the new trading session, international gold prices briefly broke through $4,100 an ounce during intraday trading, while oil prices extended their decline.
The most actively traded December 2026 gold futures contract on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York settled up $132.6 at $4,073 an ounce on November 4, a gain of 3.37%, after rising more than 3.5% at one point during the session and reclaiming the $4,000-an-ounce threshold. Silver rebounded even more strongly, with December silver futures rising $2.529 to settle at $52.282 an ounce, up 5.08%, after approaching 5.5% intraday.
The crude oil market moved in the opposite direction. December-delivery light sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $7.97 to settle at $88.12 a barrel, down 8.29%. January-delivery Brent crude futures in London fell $8.98 to settle at $94.62 a barrel, down 8.67%. Both benchmark crudes posted closing declines of more than 8%.
| Instrument | Contract | Settlement Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Futures | December 2026 | $4,073/oz | +3.37% |
| Silver Futures | December 2026 | $52.282/oz | +5.08% |
| Light Sweet Crude Futures | December 2026 | $88.12/bbl | -8.29% |
| Brent Crude Futures | January 2027 | $94.62/bbl | -8.67% |
Note: Data are based on closing quotes from the New York Mercantile Exchange and ICE Futures Europe; different sources record slight variations in WTI crude settlement prices.
Market participants attributed the oil price plunge to the rapid unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. After the election results were announced, concerns about a U.S. military strike on Iran eased markedly, loosening the supply-disruption expectations previously priced into crude, and long positions were liquidated en masse. One trader noted that oil prices briefly climbed above $97 a barrel during electronic trading before falling in a straight line on the news, with the intraday trading range exceeding $10.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields fell alongside oil prices, providing additional support for non-yielding precious metals. Although stronger-than-expected U.S. October ADP employment data briefly raised expectations of an interest rate hike this year, the subsequently released October ISM non-manufacturing index came in below expectations, and falling rates driven by the crude selloff helped gold hold onto most of its gains.
On the fundamentals side, data from UK consultancy Vortexa showed that crude, condensate and refined products (excluding LPG) transiting the Strait of Hormuz averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million barrels a day in September but still equivalent to about 75% of the level before the Iran war broke out.
Ole Hansen, head of global commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank, said the continued recovery in Middle East crude exports has begun to weigh on spot prices and could help accelerate the normalization of refining margins and ultimately lower oil prices.
From an asset-allocation perspective, this round of trading displayed the typical parallel features of safe-haven demand and a repricing of risk premiums. Precious metals drew support from the combination of rate-cut expectations amid political uncertainty and demand for geopolitical risk hedges, while crude gave back earlier gains as supply-disruption fears eased. Going forward, the market’s focus will shift to the actual impact of the election results on fiscal policy and the path of energy regulation, as well as whether transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz can continue to recover.