Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) reported its latest earnings on Tuesday, showing third-quarter net profit jumped 34.5% year-on-year to $36.25 billion (about NT$1.2 trillion), beating market expectations, even as key facilities came under repeated attack. The profit surge at the state-owned oil giant came mainly from crude prices pushed higher by Middle East hostilities and a gain on the disposal of an equity stake in a joint venture.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, Aramco’s net profit exceeded the $26.9 billion (about NT$880 billion) posted a year earlier and topped the second quarter’s $32.7 billion (about NT$1.1 trillion). Third-quarter adjusted net profit was about $31.2 billion (about NT$1 trillion), above the median analyst estimate of $30.66 billion, showing the company still delivered results above market consensus despite a turbulent operating environment.
Looking at the volume-price structure, the profit growth did not come entirely from higher output in the core business. Aramco’s average realized crude price in the third quarter was $95.2 per barrel (about NT$3,100), well above $70.1 a year earlier (about NT$2,300), but down from $108.1 in the second quarter (about NT$3,500). Production moved in the opposite direction: third-quarter average total hydrocarbon production was 11.05 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, below 13.3 million boe/d a year earlier; total liquids production was 8.7 million bpd, also short of 10.8 million bpd a year earlier.
Separately, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report, Saudi Arabia’s September crude output was about 8 million bpd, far below the slightly more than 10 million bpd level before the war broke out. That means the revenue boost from higher oil prices was partly offset by reduced supply, and the supply actually available to the market has been significantly constrained.
Beyond oil prices, Aramco’s September sale of its 50% stake in Malaysia’s PRefChem refining and petrochemical joint venture also contributed positively to third-quarter profit. In other words, the strong earnings were the combined result of oil prices, operational adjustments and asset disposals, rather than a broad improvement in the core oil business.
Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser said bluntly in a statement: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on critical energy facilities continued to deepen the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with a serious impact on global energy security.” He said the company continued to supply customers reliably even in “exceptional times.”
The impact of the Middle East conflict is concrete and direct. The Iran-backed Yemeni armed group the Houthi movement has frequently attacked Saudi tankers, pipelines, storage facilities and refineries since hostilities resumed in July, with attacks intensifying in recent weeks; Saudi Arabia must also contend with Houthi and Iranian disruption of shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, complicating the routing of crude exports.
To reduce reliance on ports on the eastern Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia in recent years has strengthened the strategic role of the East-West Pipeline, moving crude from eastern oil fields to Red Sea coast ports for export to international markets via the Red Sea. Nasser said on the earnings call that preliminary engineering has begun on the pipeline expansion; he said last month that the company wants to raise the pipeline’s capacity from 7 million bpd to 10 million bpd. This alternative route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz has now become a key lifeline for maintaining Saudi oil exports, and the security of its facilities directly affects global oil markets.
On the long-term front, Aramco continues to advance energy investments. The Jafurah unconventional gas project is expected to reach 2 billion standard cubic feet per day of output by 2030, while the Zuluf crude development project is expected to have processing capacity of 600,000 bpd by the end of 2026. These projects reflect Saudi Arabia’s desire to cement its influence in global energy markets through gas and crude capacity building.
For financial markets, the earnings highlight an important signal: with Middle East supply risks looming, the nominal capacity and official output of oil-producing countries can no longer fully reflect actual supply and demand. Saudi September output fell about 20% from pre-war levels, and even if other producers raise output, they may not fully fill the Middle East gap.
Looking ahead, oil price trends will depend not only on global economic growth, refining demand and inventory changes, but also on geopolitical factors such as attacks on export facilities, shipping disruptions and alternative pipeline transport capacity, all of which will be key pricing variables. Institutional investors believe the supply-chain risk premium will be slow to fade in the near term, and energy stocks and refining margins are expected to stay elevated; but if the conflict escalates further and affects Red Sea export routes, producers like Aramco that rely heavily on a single alternative route will see operating volatility amplified.
Note: Table figures are Aramco’s main third-quarter operating indicators; realized crude prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel.