Barclays backs Technoprobe on surging demand for AI chip testing

Investing.com — Barclays started coverage of Italian chip-testing equipment maker Technoprobe (BIT:TPRO) with an “overweight” rating and a €40 price target, citing the company’s close to 100% share of probe cards used to test AI graphics chips.

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Probe cards connect chips to test equipment so faulty chips are screened out before packaging. Barclays said more complex AI chips need longer and more frequent tests, so demand for probe cards should grow faster than chip volumes.

Technoprobe holds about 60% of the market for probe cards used on leading-edge logic chips.

Barclays, which spoke to more than 20 industry experts, sees the AI probe-card market growing from about €1.7 billion in 2026 to about €7.1 billion by 2030.

It puts Technoprobe’s 2030 revenue at €3.5 billion in that model, against its own forecast of €2.8 billion, which gives no credit for co-packaged optics and includes about €200 million of memory-chip revenue versus about €410 million in the model.

Barclays’ 2027 earnings per share forecast of €0.86 is 6% above Bloomberg consensus of €0.81, and its 2028 forecast of €1.17 is 9% above €1.07.

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Gross margin rose to 57% in Q2 FY26 from 40% in Q3 FY25, and Technoprobe guides to 61.5%, plus or minus 2 percentage points, for Q3 FY26.

Barclays said research, sales and administrative costs have been flat for six quarters while revenue grew strongly. It forecasts EBITDA margin of 48% in 2026 and 53% in 2028, versus 32% in 2025.

Technoprobe raised its spending plan to about €350 million over Q1 FY26-Q1 FY27 from about €240 million, to lift capacity to at least €1.6 billion by end-Q1 FY27 from €1.4 billion.

Barclays estimates a 46% return on invested capital. Its 2026 spending forecast of €240 million is below consensus of about €285 million, which it calls a delay rather than a cut.

The company guides to 2026 revenue of €1.05 billion-€1.10 billion and Q326 revenue of €314 million. Barclays said an update on another expansion plan, possibly in November, is a key catalyst.

Risks include rival FormFactor, now qualified for AI graphics chips. Barclays expects 2027 to bring the first meaningful share gains for FormFactor at Technoprobe’s expense and assumes Technoprobe’s share of those chips falls to about 85% by 2028.